A Utility Function for Examining Policy Affecting Salmon in the Skeena River

The interests of many groups, some with multiple objectives, are important to include in evaluating strategies affecting salmon in the Skeena River. A multiattribute utility model is proposed for addressing these issues. Two first-cut utility functions are assessed using the preferences of two individuals familiar with the problem. These utility functions provide a basis for constructive discussion to arrive at a reasonable utility function for examining alternative policies. Two rather unique features of this study are the explicit focus on value tradeoffs and equity considerations among interest groups, and a comparative examination of the two first-cut multiattribute utility models. This examination indicates the range of fundamental preferences which can be captured using multiattribute utility functions and illustrates the potential of the theory for conflict illumination and resolution

Utility Independence Properties on Overlapping Attributes

Given n attributes, it is shown that if two subsets of these attributes overlap and are each utility independent of their respective complements, then their union, intersection, symmetric difference, and two differences are each utility independent of their complements. A chaining theorem using this result indicates how to simplify the assessment of a multiattribute utility function to the maximum extent possible, subject to any specific set of utility independence assumptions

Examining Corporate Policy Using Multiattribute Utility Analysis

This paper illustrates the formalization of preferences over the fundamental objectives of a corporation. Specifically a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function with ten attributes is assessed for members of Woodward-Clyde Consultants. The objectives and their associated measures of effectiveness are first specified and structured in a hierarchy. The objectives concerned personal, professional, and financial goals. The assessment of one individual's utility function is presented in detail. Current uses and potential uses of the assessment procedure and the resulting utility function are discussed

Thoughts on the Establishment of Standards

The role of standards as I see it is to promote decision making that is in the interest of the public. For instance, air pollution standards might limit the sulfur content of fuels burned within a city or country. Without these standards, some individuals may burn cheaper higher sulfur fuels using the reasoning that "the little bit of sulfur dioxide contributed by me can't hurt that much". However, if everyone uses the high sulfur fuels, the general health of the public may deteriorate. Hence, standards are enacted to prohibit this situation from occurring. Usually standards specify maximum or minimum limits in terms of either absolute amounts or flowrates. Examples of the former are limitations on heights of buildings and ability to withstand an earthquake of specified magnitude. Under the latter are the air pollution standards of "parts per million" and radiation dosages due to nuclear facilities. This short note attempts to support the contention that standards should be specified in light of (1) the public preferences and, (2) the alternatives available. The implications of any alternative must always have some degree of uncertainty, so in this sense, my contention is that standards should depend on preferences for and probabilities of the consequences of the available alternatives. This particular viewpoint will be explained in terms of a simple abstract example. The thoughts contained here are meant to illustrate some of the considerations and relationships that I feel are important in establishing standards. They are not meant as complete procedures for the process of setting standards

A Group Preference Axiomatization with Cardinal Utility

Given a group composed of N individuals and given a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function for each individual in the group, how can these be aggregated to obtain a group von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. The implications of a set of axioms, analogous to Arrow's, using individual cardinal utilities--rather than Arrow's ordinal rankings--are investigated. The result is a group cardinal utility function which explicitly requires interpersonal comparison of preference. Suggestions for who should make these comparisons and how they might be done are given

An Interactive Computer Program for Assessing and Analyzing Preferences Concerning Multiple Objectives

An interactive computer program designed to facilitate the quantification of a decision maker's preferences for multiple objectives in terms of a multiattribute utility function is described. It is meant to alleviate many of the operational difficulties with current procedures for assessing and using multiattribute utility functions. The package includes commands for structuring the utility function, assessing single-attribute component utility functions of the overall multiattribute utility function, identifying the preference trade-offs between attributes, evaluating alternatives, and performing sensitivity analysis. Suggestions for using the program are included

Assessing and Evaluating Environmental Impacts at Proposed Nuclear Power Plant Sites

The applicability of decision analysis for assessing, evaluating, and reporting possible environmental impacts of proposed large-scale projects is illustrated. A study concerning the ecological impacts of constructing and operating nuclear power facilities in the Pacific Northwest is used as an example. Possible impacts are quantified for two objectives: minimizing adverse impacts on salmonids and minimizing biological disturbance. The results provide information about both the direct and indirect consequences of the impact. This approach explicitly addresses the multiple objective and uncertainty issues inherent in environmental problems. It also provides a mechanism for illuminating conflicts among interested parties and promoting constructive compromise

Evaluating Potential Nuclear Power Plant Sites in the Pacific Northwest Using Decision Analysis

This study, authorized by the Washington Public Power Supply System, was made to identify suitable additional future sites for nuclear power generating facilities with a 3000 megawatt capacity in the state of Washington and parts of Oregon and Idaho. A series of screening models was used to identify nine specific sites for evaluation. A decision analysis was conducted to evaluate these candidate sites. Six major objectives concerning human health and safety, environmental effects, socio-economic impacts, and financial considerations were formally utilized over the six attributes measuring the degree to which the objectives were met. Possible impacts at each site were assessed for each attribute by experts knowledgeable about the aspects in question. Evaluation and sensitivity analyses led to the recommendation that site specific studies should be conducted at three sites to select one for proceeding to the formal licensing process

A prescriptive approach to qualify and quantify customer value for value-based requirements engineering

Recently, customer-based product development is becoming a popular paradigm. Customer expectations and needs can be identified and transformed into requirements for product design with the help of various methods and tools. However, in many cases, these models fail to focus on the perceived value that is crucial when customers make the decision of purchasing a product. In this paper, a prescriptive approach to support value-based requirements engineering (RE) is proposed, describing the foundations, procedures and initial applications in the context of RE for commercial aircraft. An integrated set of techniques, such as means-ends analysis, part-whole analysis and multi-attribute utility theory is introduced in order to understand customer values in depth and width. Technically, this enables identifying the implicit value, structuring logically collected statements of customer expectations and performing value modelling and simulation. Additionally, it helps to put in place a system to measure customer satisfaction that is derived from the proposed approach. The approach offers significant potential to develop effective value creation strategies for the development of new product

Conflicting Objectives in Decisions

This book deals with quantitative approaches in making decisions when conflicting objectives are present. This problem is central to many applications of decision analysis, policy analysis, operational research, etc. in a wide range of fields, for example, business, economics, engineering, psychology, and planning. The book surveys different approaches to the same problem area and each approach is discussed in considerable detail so that the coverage of the book is both broad and deep. The problem of conflicting objectives is of paramount importance, both in planned and market economies, and this book represents a cross-cultural mixture of approaches from many countries to the same class of problem